The International Monetary Fund has warned that global shortages of refined fuels—particularly diesel and jet fuel—are set to continue, as disruptions linked to tensions involving the United States and Iran persist.
Speaking on the situation, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the ongoing constraints around the Strait of Hormuz have already inflicted lasting damage on the global economy, despite a tentative ceasefire agreement.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint that typically handles about a quarter of the world’s seaborne crude oil and one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas shipments, is currently operating far below capacity. Recent figures indicate that less than 10% of its normal traffic is moving through, significantly restricting global energy flows.
Although a two-week truce brokered by Pakistan on April 7 raised hopes of easing tensions, the passage remains heavily constrained. Reports suggest that Iranian authorities are only allowing limited categories of vessels—primarily dry bulk carriers—to transit, leaving energy shipments largely stalled.
The IMF said it will downgrade its global growth outlook for 2026 in its forthcoming World Economic Outlook report. Before the crisis, growth was projected at 3.3%, but Georgieva noted that even the most optimistic scenarios now point to a lower figure.
The supply disruption has already cut global oil availability by roughly 13% and LNG supplies by about 20%, triggering a negative supply shock. This has intensified inflationary pressures worldwide and further strained already fragile supply chains.
In response, the IMF is preparing up to $50 billion in emergency funding to support economies most exposed to the crisis. Several energy-importing countries with limited fiscal capacity have already requested balance-of-payments assistance.
Energy markets remain volatile. Brent crude traded around $95.86 per barrel on Friday—down from a peak of $120 during the height of the conflict but still significantly above pre-crisis levels. Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, North Sea oil benchmarks have surged, with Forties Blend nearing $147 amid continued uncertainty.
Georgieva cautioned that even if a lasting peace agreement is reached, the global economy will not quickly revert to pre-conflict conditions.
Beyond energy, the ripple effects are spreading to food security. The IMF estimates that rising fertilizer costs and transport disruptions could push an additional 45 million people into food insecurity. The Fund has urged governments to strengthen fiscal buffers and allow exchange rate flexibility as part of broader efforts to manage the unfolding economic shock.
